Water GenbuTier 2
at Ascent Seattle
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 9 | 0-7-2 | 11.1% | 23.1% | 23.0% | -12.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -2.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.6% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 37.9% | -5.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 51.8% | +1.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 7 | 4-1-2 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 61.7% | +5.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 62.8% | +6.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -7.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 26.1% | -15.3 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 55.0% | +3.7 |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 34.5% | -8.9 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.1% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 72.5% | +13.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.5 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.7% | -4.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 58.0% | +6.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.2 |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.5% | -11.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 53.4% | +2.6 |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Fire Allen | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Fire Triskit | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.6% | +26.6 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 31.8% | -29.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Art of War | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Floating Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluvial Fatestone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fishing Accident | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fated Keepsake | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incandescent Reliquary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chibi, Battle of Red Cliffs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Submerged Fatestone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glorious Presence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |